Stock Focus Report – Market Analysis for December 23, 2025

Tuesday’s session delivered a strange contradiction: stocks marched higher while consumer confidence took its fifth consecutive monthly tumble. The S&P 500 added 0.46% to close at 6,909.79, the Nasdaq gained 0.49% to 23,544.70, and even the Dow managed a 0.16% bump to 48,442.41. Not exactly a red-hot rally, but enough to keep the record-setting party going.

The market’s ability to shrug off bad news was on full display today. Apple (AAPL) got slapped with a $115 million fine by Italian regulators for unfair app tracking policies, Lockheed Martin (LMT) faced Pentagon criticism for F-35 jets being operational only 50% of the time, and consumer sentiment dropped for the fifth straight month. Yet here we are, making new highs like none of it matters.

Treasury yields crept higher across the board, with the 10-year adding 3 basis points to 4.17%, while the dollar index strengthened to 97.95. Bitcoin gave back nearly 1% to trade at $87,520, continuing its post-rally consolidation.

The headline grabber was the final Q3 GDP reading showing the economy grew at a scorching 4.3% annual rate. That’s the kind of number that normally has everyone doing backflips, but investors seem more focused on what comes next. Consumer confidence dropping for five consecutive months tells a different story than GDP, creating a weird economic split personality.

Defense contractors had a mixed day. Raytheon (RTX) landed a $1.7 billion Patriot systems deal with Spain, the kind of contract that keeps shareholders happy. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin dealt with Bloomberg reports about Pentagon watchdogs criticizing F-35 maintenance issues. When your $100 million fighter jets are only working half the time, that’s not exactly a glowing performance review.

The M&A machine kept churning as ServiceNow (NOW) announced plans to acquire cybersecurity startup Armis for nearly $8 billion. In the casino world, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) saw CEO Robert Goldstein offload $167 million in shares this month, the kind of insider selling that makes investors nervous. And in the airline sector, Southwest (LUV) proved that sometimes narrative beats numbers—profits dropped 42% this year, yet it’s the top-performing U.S. airline stock as investors bet on baggage fees and assigned seating saving the day.

The market’s current vibe is peak cognitive dissonance. On one hand, we’re hitting new all-time highs with GDP growing at 4.3%. On the other hand, consumers are increasingly worried about jobs and business conditions, confidence is falling month after month, and the data points are starting to contradict each other like guests at an awkward holiday dinner.

Gold and silver hitting new highs for the second straight day tells you everything about underlying anxiety levels. When precious metals rally alongside stocks, investors are essentially hedging their bets—happy to ride the equity wave but nervous enough to buy insurance. Gold futures climbing reflects that classic uncertainty trade, even as the S&P makes new records.

There’s also a fascinating disconnect between corporate actions and market reactions. Apple gets fined $115 million? Whatever. Pentagon says F-35s only work half the time? Meh. A casino CEO dumps $167 million in stock? Markets barely blink. This Teflon quality suggests either incredible confidence or dangerous complacency, depending on whether your glass is half full or your F-35 is half operational.

As we head into the final trading days of 2025, the market’s resilience in the face of mixed signals is remarkable. Strong GDP growth provides fundamental support, but deteriorating consumer confidence suggests the foundation might be shakier than headline numbers indicate. That’s the tightrope we’re walking—economic strength today versus consumer pessimism about tomorrow.

The defense sector will be worth watching after today’s divergent headlines. RTX’s $1.7 billion Spanish contract shows demand remains strong, but Lockheed’s maintenance problems highlight execution risks in these complex programs. When you’re selling to governments with trillion-dollar budgets, the revenue is reliable even if the jets aren’t always flying.

With the holiday-shortened week winding down, volumes will likely stay light through year-end. That means momentum can continue with less resistance, but it also means any sudden headline could create outsized moves. Keep an eye on how consumer-facing stocks react to the ongoing confidence slide—if shoppers are worried, retailers might eventually feel it where it counts.