Stock Focus Report – Market Analysis for December 29, 2025

Monday’s session felt like that friend who’s already checked out mentally before New Year’s Eve. The S&P 500 slipped 24 points (0.35%) to close at 6,905.74, while the Nasdaq shed 101 points (0.43%) and the Dow dropped 249 points (0.51%). Not exactly panic-selling, but enough red ink to remind everyone we’re still in a market that occasionally goes down.

The session brought actual corporate drama to offset the holiday doldrums. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) absolutely cratered 42%, losing $14.47 per share after its experimental bone disease drug flopped in late-stage trials. Meanwhile, DigitalBridge (DBRG) surged 9.6% on reports that SoftBank is close to acquiring the data center investment firm, because apparently Masayoshi Son’s AI shopping spree knows no bounds.

Treasury yields ticked higher across the board—the 10-year nudged up to 4.12%—while Bitcoin dipped slightly to $87,238. The dollar strengthened to 98.02, suggesting investors are playing it safe as we approach year-end with all the enthusiasm of someone assembling IKEA furniture.

The aerospace sector got a caffeine jolt as Chinese carriers Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines announced plans to purchase 55 Airbus A320-family jets in an $8.2 billion deal. Airbus (EADSY) shares benefited from the massive order, demonstrating that China’s aviation market remains hungry for narrow-body aircraft despite broader economic headwinds.

The retail and healthcare sectors provided the day’s clearest narratives. Lululemon (LULU) is facing internal turbulence as founder Chip Wilson launched a proxy battle, nominating three independent directors just days after previous criticisms. The athleisure giant’s governance drama adds uncertainty heading into 2026, though shares held relatively steady.

SoftBank (SFTBY) dominated deal headlines with Bloomberg reporting advanced discussions to acquire DigitalBridge (DBRG). This follows the Japanese conglomerate’s increasingly aggressive AI infrastructure play, positioning itself at the intersection of data centers and artificial intelligence. The AI infrastructure theme continues attracting serious capital, even as broader tech indices took a modest breather.

Investor sentiment feels like everyone’s already mentally on vacation but still has to show up for work. The modest declines across major indices suggest profit-taking rather than fear—nobody’s rushing for the exits, but nobody’s exactly buying the dip with conviction either. Trading volumes are thin, and the moves feel more technical than fundamental.

The divergence between winners and losers tells the real story. While RARE shareholders endured a nightmare 42% plunge, DBRG investors celebrated a 9.6% pop on acquisition speculation. These aren’t broad-based moves; they’re company-specific catalysts creating pockets of volatility in an otherwise sleepy tape.

The uptick in Treasury yields and dollar strength hints at cautious positioning. Investors seem content to clip coupons at 4%+ yields rather than chase equities higher at these levels. With the S&P hovering near 6,900, the risk-reward calculus favors patience as we close out 2025 and wait for fresh catalysts in January.

Monday’s action reinforced that we’re in the awkward transition period between Christmas and New Year’s, where real money sits on the sidelines and headlines matter more than usual. The Ultragenyx trial failure and SoftBank’s acquisition appetite provided actual news flow, but neither story changed the macro picture. We’re still in a high-valuation environment with elevated yields and cautious sentiment.

Looking ahead, watch whether this mild selling pressure accelerates as tax-loss harvesting meets year-end portfolio rebalancing. The Treasury market’s slow grind higher in yields deserves attention—4.12% on the 10-year isn’t alarming, but the direction matters if you’re valuing growth stocks at 30x+ earnings.

The SoftBank-DigitalBridge deal, if completed, would mark another validation of AI infrastructure as the decade’s defining theme. Data centers, chips, and the picks-and-shovels of artificial intelligence continue attracting capital even when broader tech takes a breather. That’s your signal for what survives the next correction and what doesn’t. Keep your shopping list ready—the new year typically brings fresh opportunities once the calendar flips.