Colombia 12-month inflation through November seen at 5.13%: Reuters poll

By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombian inflation in November is forecast to have hit 0.20% versus the same month a year ago, mostly due to changing food prices, according to a Reuters poll published on Friday, which also saw year-end expectations decline.

Estimates from 20 analysts for inflation in November ranged from 0.14% to 0.29%.

If the median estimate is met, consumer price increases in November would come in below the 0.47% acceleration seen in the same month of 2023.

However, it would be higher than in October, when inflation surprised by contracting by 0.13%.

“We expect a rebound in food inflation, after the deflation that the sector showed in previous months,” Colombian bank Bancolombia said in a note.

“Indexation would keep service inflation high, while the celebration of seasonal events (such as Black Friday and the Auto Show in Bogota) will allow another low record of inflation in goods and the evolution of electricity rates will continue to lead to low registration for those regulated,” the note added.

If the median of the survey is met, Colombia’s 12-month inflation through Nov. 30 would be 5.13%, lower than the 5.41% at the end of October, but still above the central bank’s 3% target.

The government’s DANE statistics agency will publish November inflation on Dec. 6.

Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2025 fell to 5.10%, down from 5.51% in last month’s survey and below the 5.3% forecast by the central bank’s technical team.

For 2025, inflation forecasts fell marginally to 3.80%, versus 3.81% previously. The outlook for 2026 now expects inflation to close at 3.20%, down from 3.30% previously.

(Reporting by Nelson Bocanegra; Writing by Oliver Griffin; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)